The 2026 World Cup, hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, concluded with Spain defeating Argentina in the final. While the event’s original bid committee aimed for carbon neutrality, the tournament expanded significantly beyond initial projections, growing to 104 matches and drawing nearly seven million spectators. FIFA has not released updated emissions figures for the event.
To address the lack of official data, researchers created a computer model to analyze the tournament's carbon footprint. The model, which accounted for match schedules, attendance, and team travel, estimated total emissions at approximately 3.2 million tonnes of CO₂e. This figure sits below the initial bid estimate of 3.7 million tonnes and is notably lower than pre-tournament predictions from groups like Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR), which estimated 9 million tonnes, and Greenly, which projected 7.8 million tonnes.
The discrepancy between these estimates stems largely from differing assumptions regarding international travel and the environmental impact of aviation. While some forecasts assumed a high volume of overseas spectators, the researchers' model estimated that 42% of attendees traveled internationally. Furthermore, the 2026 tournament benefited from using existing stadiums, eliminating the emissions associated with new construction.
The researchers noted that aviation-related warming—including contrails and nitrogen oxides—remains a significant factor in these calculations. If only CO₂ emissions were considered, the model's estimate would drop to approximately 1.9 million tonnes. Final clarity on the tournament's environmental impact is expected in August, when border agencies in the host nations release official spectator data, which will confirm the extent of long-haul travel during the event.
Source: The Conversation
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