Following the conclusion of the 2026 World Cup, which saw Spain defeat Argentina in the final, questions remain regarding the tournament's environmental impact. While the initial 2018 bid committee promised a carbon-neutral event, the tournament expanded significantly beyond original projections, hosting 104 matches and attracting nearly seven million spectators.

Because FIFA has not released updated emissions figures, researchers developed a computer model to analyze the tournament's carbon footprint. Their simulation, which accounted for match schedules, team travel, and attendance data, estimated total emissions at approximately 3.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e). This figure sits below the 3.7 million tonnes originally estimated by the consultancy Arup and is significantly lower than pre-tournament warnings from groups like Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR), which had projected up to 9 million tonnes.

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The discrepancy between various forecasts stems largely from differing assumptions regarding international travel and the calculation of aviation-related warming. The researchers noted that because the 2026 tournament utilized existing stadiums, construction-related emissions were effectively zero. Furthermore, while the event drew nearly double the spectators of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the per-spectator carbon cost was lower; the study suggests the emissions per ticket in 2026 were equivalent to driving a petrol car roughly 2,900 kilometers, compared to 6,500 kilometers for the Qatar tournament.

The final environmental assessment remains subject to spectator travel data, which is expected to be released by border agencies in the United States, Canada, and Mexico starting in August. If the data confirms a predominantly North American audience, the researchers' lower estimate is likely to hold, whereas a high volume of long-haul international travel could push the total closer to the higher projections made by environmental groups.

Source: The Conversation