A study conducted by researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab indicates that the current super El Niño event could lead to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally by February 2027. The research highlights the Sahel region of Africa as the area most vulnerable to these temperature anomalies.
According to the projections, Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad are expected to bear the brunt of the impact, with a combined estimate of 66,800 additional deaths compared to a typical year. Nigeria, the most populous of the four, is projected to account for 31,400 of these fatalities, marking it as the country at the highest risk globally. Sudan follows with an estimated 17,500 deaths, while Niger and Chad are expected to see 10,000 and 8,000, respectively.
The researchers attribute this heightened mortality risk to a combination of extreme temperature shifts and limited infrastructure. Many residents in these nations live in poverty and lack consistent access to electricity, which prevents the use of cooling systems like air conditioning. In Niger and Chad, for instance, only 21% and 13% of the population, respectively, had access to electricity as of 2024.
To mitigate the loss of life, the study suggests that governments implement immediate adaptation strategies. Recommended measures include the establishment of early warning systems, the creation of public cooling centers and hydration stations, and targeted health outreach for vulnerable groups, such as the elderly, children, and those with chronic health conditions. Additionally, the researchers advise that hospitals in the region should prepare for a surge in heatstroke cases by increasing staffing and medical supplies.
The findings were derived by comparing seasonal weather forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with data on how temperature fluctuations impact mortality rates across more than 24,000 regions worldwide.
Source: The Conversation
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