Donald Trump’s net approval rating has reached a new record low of -23, according to Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls. Data shows that 60.4% of respondents disapprove of his performance, while 37.4% approve. This standing is lower than that of any president at this stage of their term since Harry Truman.
The decline in approval extends to specific policy areas, with net ratings of -13.0 on immigration, -28.3 on trade, -32.1 on the economy, and -46.4 on inflation. Additionally, public opposition to the war in Iran has grown, with 57.9% of those polled expressing disapproval, resulting in a net support level of -24.4.
These trends have influenced forecasts for the November 3 midterm elections, where all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are at stake. Silver’s model currently positions Democrats as the clear favorites to secure control of both chambers. Democrats hold a 9.1-point lead in the generic ballot, translating to a 69% probability of winning the Senate and a 91% chance of taking the House.
The shift is particularly notable in states such as Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, where Democrats are currently leading in Senate contests despite Trump’s double-digit victories in those regions during the 2024 election. However, analysts note that the outcome remains sensitive to economic factors, specifically petrol prices and inflation. While petrol prices have risen alongside the conflict in Iran, some market indicators suggest a potential for short-term price fluctuations that could impact voter sentiment.
The final results could still be influenced by a potential systematic polling error or significant economic shifts before election day. While Democrats are currently favored, they face challenges in specific races, such as in Maine, where Republican incumbent Susan Collins has maintained a lead in recent polling.
Source: The Conversation
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