The Greater Horn of Africa is bracing for a potential polycrisis as a series of overlapping hazards threaten to destabilize the region through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. Researchers specializing in humanitarian crises warn that the convergence of climate instability, regional conflict, disease outbreaks, and global economic pressures could lead to severe outcomes, including mass displacement and increased mortality.
Environmental challenges are a primary driver of the current outlook. Following consecutive seasons of below-average rainfall in parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, the region is now contending with a developing super El Niño. This weather phenomenon is expected to trigger further agricultural disruption, including both drought and flooding, which threatens rural livelihoods and food security.
These environmental stressors are compounded by a volatile security landscape. With the exception of Kenya, every nation in the Greater Horn is currently experiencing protracted, violent conflict. Analysts note that these internal wars not only hinder humanitarian response efforts but also exacerbate the risk of famine, with some reports suggesting that starvation is being utilized as a tool of warfare in areas such as Sudan and Ethiopia's Tigray region.
The region is also facing external economic and health pressures. The war in Iran has disrupted global supply chains, leading to higher food costs and a critical shortage of fertilizer, which is expected to diminish future harvests. Simultaneously, the emergence of an unpredictable Ebola variant in Congo and Uganda poses a significant epidemic risk, particularly if the virus spreads into South Sudan.
The ability to mitigate these threats is severely limited by a diminished international humanitarian infrastructure. Significant cuts to foreign aid budgets by Western nations, including the United States, have crippled the global response system. As formal aid programs shutter and monitoring capabilities decline, the burden of crisis response has increasingly shifted to local mutual aid groups and diaspora networks.
Experts emphasize that these shocks are multiplicative rather than additive, with each factor intensifying the others. Without urgent intervention and increased support for local initiatives, the region faces a high risk of widespread humanitarian collapse.
Source: The Conversation
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